The fact of the matter is that the trump Presidency has 23 months left, realistically this Presidency will end 20 months from now on election day November 3, 2020. Whomever is the next President, trump or any number of others, the Washington ruling class will look a lot different at that time. Given the nature of politics and the human condition, the count down to this time has begun and this has impacts on many issues that attention should be paid to.
The trade war with China is not likely to be settled any time soon. The people of China and of the Far East take a long term view of foreign policy. The long term view on trade has to include a Chinese calculation that assigns probability that trump will be gone in 23 months. Anything agreed to now may very well be repudiated as early as next Spring and will face scrutiny in early 2021.
Watch what happens with these negotiations. Every delay in talks works in the Chinese favor as delay brings 2021 closer and certainly puts pressure on a trump 2020 campaign as no deal persists.
Watch what the House of Reps. investigates. A House investigation in 2017 that found impeachable offenses may have had a large impact then; however, now with the first Presidential primaries 12 months away there should be an ever diminishing desire or need to impeach. Think about this. Why would anyone in their right mind want make Mike Pence President with the power to hand pick a new Vice-President? The opportunities are great for Republicans in this case and the pit falls for Democrats are many. Watch for the House investigations to get very professional and proceed with much due diligence.
Watch the upcoming summit with North Korea. The only reason for the Koreans to meet with trump is to get a good photo op. Like the Chinese, the Koreans are very good at the long game and will yield nothing in advance of a new US Presidency.
In this same fashion, every ruler in the World is making these same calculations. As are Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, Mitch McConnell and all the high ranking appointees currently in office. Watch the Taliban and others push hard to get a peace deal done this year, the new NAFTA treaty swing in the wind and the exodus of Cabinet members and other high level appointees will pick up steam.
Every day that passes will find trump with less power, fewer World leaders to talk with, fewer friends in the Republican Party, fewer places to hold rallies, and more investigations that will be more likely to indite him. Count the days down. The winds of change are just starting to stir. It will be an interesting 20 months.