22 Months Until a New Presidency – The Countdown Continues

January 2021 is 22 months away. 22 months of political mayhem, bright promises, chaos, and turmoil. At this point in time, the vision of a new President or a renewal of the current Presidency is obscured by the fog that always surrounds the future. Overwhelming us is the purpose of the current bluster, bravado, and lie fest we see today. Maybe we should do a status check to find out where we are at.

The current issues of the day.

1) Mueller investigation – impatiently waiting on the report. 

    By all appearances, a lot of criminality occurred during the 2016 Campaign. There have been numerous indictments, trials and convictions with more to come. So far there is nothing out there that is known to the general public that concludes trump conspired in a direct way with the Russians to impact the election. Given the DOJ policy of not indicting a sitting President, we all should lower our expectations of the Mueller Report.

2) House of Representatives investigations.

    Well, this much seems certain, the Democrats will over reach. All these Committee hearings will lead to, at least, 18 months of news. Outcome to be determined.

3) Southern District of New York

    These folks are on to something. We already know from the Cohen conviction the trump is guilty of felony campaign law violations. Should he not be re-elected, he will face trial for these crimes. Of course, there are many more crimes under investigation that will cause his children and business associates to face trial sooner rather than later. The long list of crimes that the trump organization has perpetrated will likely leave trump facing multiple trials in 2021. Those who are not President stand to be indicted any day now. Stay tuned.

4) North Korea

    Playing the long game with China’s support. Trump is not to be trusted and will be gone in 22 months. The NK would normally wait out the 22 months until they could begin anew with the next administration; however, with the Hanoi Summit failing Kim is in a bad spot. NK summed up trump correctly as a weak President begging for a deal then made a classic mistake of bringing forth a dead on arrival offer. Trump did not have the patience to stick around and work up something that would work for both sides which left Kim at the alter so to speak. Kim did some sightseeing before getting back on his train and going home to face his Generals. Remember Kim-Un is only in power as long as the Generals don’t take him out. He only answers to his family and the Generals and their questions have to be burning him. The NK economy is in the tank Kim must do something to restore his position. Trump is weaker than ever so what would bring him back to the table? 

5) China

    The expectation is ripe for the trade dispute to be settled. It is in China’s best interest to give a little to gain a lot and trump needs to get Midwest grain sales back on track. Trump will fold.

6) Border Wall

    Trump will win this one. Even though the courts will likely overturn his emergency order, there is an escalating border issue with the number of families crossing the border. While it is generally accepted that a “wall” will not solve this problem, it is the easiest thing to sell. The Democrats will offer up ever more money in next years budget to blunt this as a 2020 campaign issue. If you need construction work, head for the border!

7) Venezuela

    Got to invade. No hope.

8) As the pressure mounts on trump he will get more unstable. Watch out for mental deterioration here, the man is not well.

9) The Democratic field of candidates for the Presidency is already large and likely to grow. This is a good thing. Watch out for all the orchestrated nonsense about socialism, center left, center right, etc. It will all be BS this calendar year as these candidates are likely to say anything to get a few votes from the margins hoping to boost their prospects and the Fox News folks will have a hay day with it all. America needs this loud animated discussion and we will be a better republic for it.  Look for one of the Governor’s running to come out of the pack. Hickenlooper, Inslee, or Bullock will look very good to the folks in the early States. Klobuchar, Harris, or Warren are looking good right now; however, they may be at their peaks with just a long slippery slope ahead. All the rest are going to be also rans. Sorry Joe and Bernie fans. Big stars right now; however, Joe has a lot of baggage that will come out and he will not look good. Bernie starts at his peak although there is a strong left in the Democratic Party now (due to Bernie), it is all down hill. 

22 months to go. 10 months to 2020 when we face a year of Washington doing nothing of substance and a trump administration tied in knots, crippled beyond imagination. If trump wakes up and starts working with Democrats to get some stuff done this year he may save his Presidency but he only has a couple of months to things started and a few more to get something done. If he follows the current path, all bets are off. Watch out for crazy, dangerous and weird stuff.