20 Months Until A New Presidency

Now only 20 months until a new Presidency and the primary fight is gearing up. The Democrats now have 21 official candidates with a couple more almost sure to jump in. The Republicans have spawned Weld and Hogan to oppose trump. The economy is roaring on which complicates the Democratic plans to win and will virtually erase trumps primary opponents. Lets go down the list and see where we stand.

1) The Mueller Investigation Report – confusion and misdirection reign.

       The report is as expected. Detailed, thorough and damming. While no criminal conspiracy (collusion) was found, it is clear that trump campaign staffers were more than happy to accept help from the Russians. It looks like Paul Manafort gave the Russians polling data on the Mid-West and passed on other sensitive information to help them target voters in the states of Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. The second volume of the report lists 10 of trumps efforts to obstruct justice, which he clearly did. As expected, no Russian collusion just a lot of cooperation and no indictment of a sitting President. The Justice system is now on hold pending what Congress wants to do which boils down to you and I telling our Representatives what we would like done. Stay tuned.

2). House Investigatons

       Predictable escalations on all fronts with the faint prospect of impeachment. Stonewalling by the administration on subpoenas, witness appearances and document production will wear thin with the American public over time. I think a ton of information on wrong doing will be uncovered over the next 18 months and most of it will be carried over into the next Congress or referred to the DOJ for the next administration to deal with. Yes it is the old political game of delay, delay, delay and eventually there will be another election.

3) SDNY – still quiet. 

      These folks will likely remain in quiet mode through the end of 2020 unless something forces their hand. In 2021 we can expect to see indictments unless trump is re-elected.

4) North Korea

      Playing trump like a fiddle. Now that trump has elevated Kim to world leader status, he travels to Russia and China to build support to end US sanctions. Summit with trump is a disastrous failure causing more than one NK individual to lose their life. As we have seen today NK has begun shooting off missiles again. This is trump testing and will escalate until trump gives in, which he will.

5) China

     Masters of the long game. Maybe they will agree to some trade changes to get trump to end most of the tariffs. They don’t have a lot to gain by giving in anything meaningful, after all, in 20 months there will be a new administration. 

6) Border Wall

      Trump winning. More migrant families, more for profit detention centers, more turmoil, etc Anytime trump wants to capture the news cycle he can throw out the border crisis.

7) Venezuela 

      Chaos. Now the Russians and Chinese are involved along with Cuba. So trump bluffs and blusters threatening an embargo on Cuba and an invasion by American forces.Poor Venezuela being toyed with for political purpose and the only sure losers are the people. Being a war President is a really good vote getter (ask Richard Nixon) and my bets are on some type of military option. After all why did we spend $800 billion on the Pentagon if we didn’t mean to use it?

8) Trump is definitely unstable. 

      Now that it comes out that trump bellows out orders that his staff refuse to obey, it begs the question of who is in charge? It also raises the issue of why are not the staff carrying out his orders? Too illegal? Too outrageous? Continuing to tweet up a storm of misinformation, lies and misdirection. Will he go totally bonkers before the election?

9) Biden is in and sucking a lot of air out of the room. Bennet is in and a real contender. I think the June debates will winnow out the field and maybe give a shot to a couple of late comers who will not be on the June stage.

A couple of thoughts in conclusion, the economy is doing well, job growth continues, wages are climbing and unemployment is at a 50 year low. These are all good signs for the Republicans in 2020. Frankly the economy is not the same today as it was in the 1990’s. Work has changed and income security is a bigger issue for many people. Contract work, temp work, holding multiple part time jobs are the status today. The numbers that show a booming economy no longer reflect the reality of the middle class so I am not sure how much the numbers help. 

Most all of the people I talk with out here in the campground are concerned not about Washington or the stock market but by healthcare costs, retirement insecurity, and bad roads. There are not many vocal trump supporters anymore. Time marches on and we will see what we give ourselves in 2020.

Thanks for reading and comments are more than welcome.